Red Shift
Thoughts on an America that is moving away quickly.
I woke up this morning to a country that had redshifted. In politics, as in astronomy, a redshift means that things are moving away from you very quickly. It also means that they look redder than they actually are.
Many of you asked, so here are six quick thoughts about what happened yesterday and what it means.
The redshift was broad, affecting almost every state and demographic group. Blue states and red states both got redder. As of now, California has redshifted the most, although our ballots are still being counted.
Donald Trump built the multi-ethnic working-class coalition that progressive Democrats long dreamt of. Trump’s theory of the electorate was that instead of reaching out to educated suburban women who supported Nikki Haley, he could grow his base of working-class (non-college) voters.
If the exit polls are right (and they often are not), it worked. He red-shifted Black men from 12% to 20% and won among Hispanic men by 54% to 45%. Trump grew support among young voters from 35% in 2020 to 42% this year. This also likely reflected growing strength among men – an important constituency that makes too many Democrats cringe.
Trump voters were obsessed with immigration and inflation. We knew this. Trump supporters cared more about immigration and inflation than Democrats cared about anything. Some of this was due to Biden’s generous spending after Covid, which probably worsened inflation. Voters reacted strongly to Biden’s relaxed approach to closing the asylum loophole, which history will judge as political malpractice.
There is little evidence that the Harris campaign is to blame. There are, of course, an abundance of Wednesday morning quarterbacks wondering whether Harris should have distanced herself more from Biden, picked a different VP, or focused on different issues. (I haven’t checked my Twitter feed, but I am probably among them.)
This is pointless. Trump won every swing state convincingly. He is the American manifestation of a global trend to toss out incumbents in the wake of inflation caused by Covid. The UK, Germany, France, Canada, South Africa, and others have seen leaders fall to Covid induced inflation. Trump’s chaotic response to Covid killed his candidacy in 2020. Covid induced inflation helped kill Biden in 2024.
The Harris campaign was much better than many people expected, given her shambolic 2020 performance. She invested heavily in seven swing states. While the average state shifted red by five points, these states only shifted by about 3.5%, suggesting an average campaign effect of 1.5%. This is fairly normal in highly competitive races – even though it was not nearly enough in this case.
This election will change our world. 75 million people did not vote for this — but we will get it anyway.
A. America is now a different country. We have elected a president who lies openly and often, promotes division and misinformation, attempted to overturn the 2020 election, and would have tried again this year had he needed to. We elected a felon who disregards fundamental democratic values, the rule of law and the Constitution, and even the military.
B. Trump will reshape the federal government to pursue his enemies. Trump and Vance will now convert the federal government into a loyalty apparatus that serves their interests. Expect Trump to try to dismantle the civil service by replacing qualified professionals with partisan operatives. Take seriously his promise to reshape the Department of Justice, the FCC, and the IRS to pursue his personal vendettas.
C. Corruption will be widespread. In his first term, Trump used his office to pressure Ukraine’s president to investigate a political rival. He favored countries to suit his business dealings. And he used the Secret Service to channel funds to his properties.
Trump admires countries like Hungary and Turkey, where autocrats enrich allies and family members. Expect them to thrive as Trump fills regulatory bodies with loyalists willing to weaken consumer, worker, and environmental protections.
D. Our enemies are very happy today. Russia is licking its lips, knowing that Ukraine is now in grave peril. Knowing that Trump will cut off aid to Ukraine, Biden needs to devote the next three months to rushing supplies to them. Short of the nuclear weapons that we forced them to give up in 1994, we should give them anything in our arsenal that they need. By late January, it will be too late.
Xi Jinping sees far fewer barriers to his plans to conquer Taiwan and subjugate much of Southeast Asia. Only Iran is worse off this morning, given Trump’s unabashed support of Israel’s Bibi Netanyahu.
This election will force a massive rethink of Democratic Party policies, messages, and priorities. This will require many college-educated professionals to think more like beer Democrats than wine Democrats. I am not optimistic that this will happen soon.
A. Democrats need to learn from Donald Trump. It seems like I wrote about this a long time ago. Turns out it was yesterday when I lived in a different country.
B. Democrats will think hard before nominating another woman to run for president. This is very unwise, obviously unfair, and perhaps even untrue. But I think Gretchen Whitmer’s prospects are worse after the redshift than they were before.
C. Gavin Newsom is surprisingly well-positioned to help lead Democrats. Newsom has been a fine governor of California but strikes me as having very similar baggage to Harris as a national politician. He is literally a wine Democrat and has had his political instincts formed in our one-party state. But he has become an effective national spokesperson for Democrats.
D. Kamala Harris should announce that she will run for governor of California when Newsom is termed out in 2026. He will run for president, as will other talented governors like Whitmer and Schapiro. The party will not renominate Harris, but if she does a good job running California she could re-emerge as a national candidate with impressive credentials. If Trump can run for President three times, she can surely run twice.